PART I BASIC PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS |
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1 | (186) |
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3 | (22) |
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Random Sampling: A Political Poll |
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4 | (6) |
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Randomized Experiments: Testing a Hospital Routine |
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10 | (4) |
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Observational Studies vs. Randomized Experiments |
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14 | (6) |
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Brief Outline of the Book |
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20 | (5) |
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20 | (5) |
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25 | (44) |
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Frequency Tables and Graphs |
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26 | (6) |
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32 | (7) |
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39 | (7) |
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46 | (1) |
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47 | (5) |
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Calculations Using Relative Frequencies |
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52 | (1) |
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The Use and Misuse of Graphs |
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53 | (16) |
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64 | (5) |
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69 | (40) |
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70 | (3) |
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73 | (6) |
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79 | (6) |
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85 | (4) |
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89 | (4) |
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Bayes Theorem: Tree Reversal |
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93 | (6) |
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Other Views of Probability |
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99 | (10) |
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103 | (6) |
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Probability Distributions |
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109 | (44) |
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Discrete Random Variables |
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110 | (3) |
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113 | (3) |
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The Binomial Distribution |
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116 | (8) |
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124 | (3) |
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127 | (7) |
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A Function of a Random Variable |
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134 | (7) |
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Expected Value in Bidding |
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141 | (12) |
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146 | (7) |
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153 | (34) |
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154 | (7) |
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A Function of Two Random Variables |
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161 | (3) |
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164 | (6) |
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Linear Combination of Two Random Variables |
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170 | (17) |
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176 | (6) |
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Review Problems (Chapters 1-5) |
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182 | (5) |
PART II INFERENCE FOR MEANS AND PROPORTIONS |
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187 | (168) |
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189 | (42) |
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190 | (6) |
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Moments of the Sample Mean |
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196 | (3) |
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The Shape of the Sampling Distribution |
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199 | (8) |
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Proportions (Percentages) |
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207 | (8) |
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Small-Population Sampling |
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215 | (3) |
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218 | (13) |
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225 | (6) |
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231 | (22) |
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232 | (1) |
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Efficiency of Unbiased Estimators |
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232 | (7) |
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Efficiency of Biased and Unbiased Estimators |
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239 | (5) |
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244 | (9) |
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248 | (5) |
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253 | (34) |
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254 | (7) |
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261 | (4) |
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Difference in Two Means, Independent Samples |
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265 | (3) |
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Difference in Two Means, Matched Samples |
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268 | (5) |
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273 | (4) |
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277 | (10) |
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281 | (6) |
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287 | (37) |
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Hypothesis Testing Using Confidence Intervals |
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288 | (5) |
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293 | (7) |
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Classical Hypothesis Tests |
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300 | (6) |
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Classical Tests Reconsidered |
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306 | (4) |
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Operating Characteristics Curve (OCC) |
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310 | (4) |
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314 | (10) |
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320 | (4) |
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Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) |
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324 | (31) |
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325 | (11) |
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336 | (7) |
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343 | (12) |
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346 | (4) |
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Review Problems (Chapters 6-10) |
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350 | (5) |
PART III REGRESSION: RELATING TWO OR MORE VARIABLES |
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355 | (160) |
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357 | (14) |
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358 | (2) |
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Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) |
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360 | (6) |
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Advantages of OLS and WLS |
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366 | (5) |
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368 | (3) |
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371 | (25) |
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372 | (3) |
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375 | (4) |
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Confidence Intervals and Tests for β |
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379 | (4) |
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Predicting Y at a Given level of X |
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383 | (6) |
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389 | (7) |
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390 | (6) |
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396 | (38) |
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397 | (3) |
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The Regression Model and Its OLS Fit |
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400 | (6) |
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Confidence Intervals and Statistical Tests |
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406 | (4) |
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Regression Coefficients as Multiplication Factors |
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410 | (7) |
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Simple and Multiple Regression Compared |
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417 | (7) |
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424 | (10) |
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428 | (6) |
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434 | (40) |
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435 | (10) |
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Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) by Regression |
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445 | (4) |
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Simplest Nonlinear Regression |
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449 | (3) |
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Nonlinearity Removed by Logs |
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452 | (9) |
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Diagnosis by Residual Plots |
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461 | (13) |
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466 | (8) |
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474 | (41) |
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475 | (7) |
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Correlation and Regression |
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482 | (7) |
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489 | (7) |
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Correlation in Multiple Regression |
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496 | (5) |
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501 | (14) |
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506 | (6) |
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Review Problems (Chapters 11-15) |
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512 | (3) |
PART IV TOPICS IN CLASSICAL AND BAYESIAN INFERENCE |
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515 | (122) |
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Nonparametric and Robust Statistics (Requires Chapter 9) |
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517 | (32) |
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Introduction: Mean or Median? |
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518 | (1) |
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518 | (4) |
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Confidence Interval for the Median |
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522 | (3) |
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525 | (3) |
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528 | (5) |
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Runs Test for Independence |
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533 | (3) |
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Robust Statistics: Trimming and Weighting |
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536 | (13) |
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545 | (4) |
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Chi-Square Tests (Requires Chapter 9) |
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549 | (15) |
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X2 Tests for Multinomials: Goodness of Fit |
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550 | (5) |
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X2 Tests for Independence: Contingency Tables |
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555 | (9) |
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561 | (3) |
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Maximum Likelihood Estimation (Requires Chapter 7) |
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564 | (18) |
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565 | (1) |
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MLE for Some Familiar Cases |
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566 | (7) |
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MLE for the Uniform Distribution |
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573 | (3) |
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576 | (6) |
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579 | (3) |
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Bayesian Inference (Requires Chapter 8) |
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582 | (38) |
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583 | (5) |
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The Population Proportion |
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588 | (10) |
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The Mean μ in a Normal Model |
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598 | (7) |
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The Slope β in Normal Regression |
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605 | (3) |
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Bayesian Shrinkage Estimates |
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608 | (7) |
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Classical and Bayesian Estimates Compared |
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615 | (5) |
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615 | (5) |
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Bayesian Decision Theory (Requires Chapter 19) |
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620 | (17) |
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Maximizing Gain (or Minimizing Loss) |
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621 | (6) |
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Point Estimation as a Decision |
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627 | (6) |
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Classical and Bayesian Statistics Compared |
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633 | (4) |
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635 | (2) |
PART V SPECIAL TOPICS FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS |
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637 | (100) |
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Decision Trees (Requires Chapter 3) |
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639 | (25) |
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640 | (8) |
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Testing to Revise Probabilities: Bayes Theorem |
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648 | (5) |
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Utility Theory to Handle Risk Aversion |
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653 | (11) |
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657 | (7) |
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Index Numbers (Requires Nothing Previous) |
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664 | (14) |
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665 | (3) |
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668 | (4) |
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672 | (6) |
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675 | (3) |
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Sampling Designs (Requires Chapter 8) |
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678 | (14) |
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679 | (8) |
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687 | (5) |
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690 | (2) |
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Time Series (Requires Chapter 15) |
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692 | (30) |
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Two Special Characteristics of a Time Series |
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693 | (2) |
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Decomposition and Forecasting Using Regression |
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695 | (10) |
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Traditional Ratio to Moving Average |
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705 | (5) |
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Forecasting Using Exponential Smoothing |
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710 | (2) |
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Forecasting Using Box-Jenkins Models |
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712 | (2) |
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Generalized Least Squares (GLS) |
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714 | (8) |
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719 | (3) |
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Simultaneous Equations (Requires Chapter 13) |
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722 | (15) |
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Introduction: The Bias in OLS |
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723 | (4) |
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The Remedy: Instrumental Variables (IV) |
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727 | (4) |
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Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) |
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731 | (6) |
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735 | (2) |
Appendixes |
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737 | (29) |
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2-2 Careful Approximation of the Median |
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738 | (1) |
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2-5 Effects of a Linear Transformation: Proofs |
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738 | (1) |
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3-7 Probability as Axiomatic Mathematics |
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738 | (1) |
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4-2 Easier Formula for σ2: Proof |
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739 | (1) |
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4-3 Binomial Formula: Proof |
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739 | (2) |
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4-4 Calculus for Continuous Distributions |
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741 | (1) |
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5-3 Independent Implies Uncorrelated: Proof |
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742 | (1) |
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5-4 Linear Combinations: Proofs |
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742 | (1) |
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6-3 Central Limit Theorem |
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743 | (1) |
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6-4 Continuity Correction: Graphical Explanation |
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743 | (1) |
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743 | (1) |
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7-4 Consistency: Careful Definition |
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744 | (1) |
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8-3 Standard Error of (X1-X2): Proof |
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745 | (1) |
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8-5 Confidence Interval for π: Derivation of Graph |
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745 | (1) |
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9-2 A More Exact p-Value for Proportions |
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746 | (1) |
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10-1 Breakdown of Total SS: Proof |
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747 | (1) |
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10-2 Two-Way ANOVA, Breakdown of Total SS: Proof |
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747 | (1) |
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10-3 ANOVA Is Much More Than Just Testing H0 |
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748 | (1) |
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748 | (2) |
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11-2 Least-Squares Formulas: Proofs |
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750 | (1) |
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12-2 The Moments of b: Proofs and Discussion |
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751 | (2) |
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12-3 A One-sided or Two-sided Test? |
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753 | (1) |
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12-4 Confidence Intervals above X0: Proofs |
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754 | (1) |
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13-2 Solution of a Set of Simultaneous Equations |
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755 | (1) |
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13-5 Direct Plus Indirect Relation: Proof |
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756 | (1) |
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14-4 Log Regression Handles a Multiplicative Error Term |
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756 | (1) |
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15-1 Correlation in Chapter 15 Agrees with Chapter 5 |
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757 | (1) |
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15-2 ANOVA and r2: Proofs |
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757 | (1) |
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18-2 MLE for Some Familiar Cases: Proofs |
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758 | (2) |
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19-2 Bayesian Confidence Interval for π: Proof |
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760 | (1) |
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19-3 Posterior Distribution of μ in a Normal Model: Proof |
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761 | (1) |
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19-4 Posterior Distribution of β in Normal Regression: Proof |
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761 | (1) |
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19-5 Bayesian Shrinkage Confidence Intervals |
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762 | (1) |
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24-2 Serial Correlation and the Durbin-Watson Test |
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762 | (1) |
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24-3 Moving Averages in General |
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763 | (1) |
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24-4 Exponential Smoothing: Proof |
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764 | (1) |
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24-5 Forecasting Using Box-Jenkins Models |
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764 | (2) |
Tables |
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766 | (15) |
References |
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781 | (6) |
Answers to Odd-Numbered Problems |
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787 | (16) |
Glossary of Common Symbols |
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803 | (4) |
Index of Examples and Problems |
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807 | (2) |
Index |
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809 | |